Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — July 2026 Decline

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — headline composite (1985=100)

The 90.8 reading is 1.6 points below the upwardly revised June figure of 92.2 and 1.6 points below the Bloomberg consensus of 92.4. The index is indexed to 1985=100; pre-pandemic (2019) readings averaged roughly 128, making 90.8 a level that implies consumer sentiment is materially below the expansion baseline and consistent with the Conference Board's characterization of a downward trend since late 2021.

Present Situation Index — current business and labor conditions sub-index (1985=100)

A 3.6-point month-over-month decline to 114.9 marks the third consecutive monthly drop and the lowest reading for this sub-index since 2021, per multiple corroborating sources. The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes typically diverge when consumers feel conditions are acceptable today but fear deterioration ahead — a pattern associated with spending caution on durable goods and discretionary categories rather than outright contraction.

Expectations Index — six-month forward outlook for income, business, and labor (1985=100)

Unchanged from June, but the flatness is not reassuring: the Expectations Index has remained below the Conference Board's historical recession-signal threshold of 80 since February 2025, a span of over 17 months. Two of three sub-components declined: net business-conditions expectations fell 1.5 percentage points to -3.3%, and net income expectations fell 0.5 percentage points to +7.3%. Only labor market expectations improved, by +1.3 percentage points, though still in negative territory.

Labor market differential — share saying jobs 'plentiful' minus share saying 'hard to get' (percentage points)

Down 0.7 percentage points from June and the narrowest reading since February 2021. The jobs-plentiful share fell to 24.6% (from 25.5%), while the jobs-hard-to-get share declined marginally to 21.5% (from 21.7%), meaning the compression was driven by falling optimism rather than rising distress. Against a 4.2% official unemployment rate, a labor differential at a five-year low signals that household-level labor perceptions are weakening faster than headline jobless statistics.

Net current business conditions — share 'good' minus share 'bad' (percentage points)

A 2.6-percentage-point fall from June to barely positive territory, with 'good' readings down to 18.9% and 'bad' readings up to 17.8%. At this width of spread, a single additional adverse data point or geopolitical shock would flip net business conditions negative — a threshold that historically coincides with more significant pullbacks in consumer discretionary spending.

Net forward business conditions expectations (percentage points)

Declined 1.5 percentage points from June; negative territory means more consumers expect business conditions to worsen than improve over the next six months. Combined with a +1.1% net current reading, the data shows consumers believe conditions are barely positive today and expect deterioration ahead — a leading indicator of deferred discretionary purchases.

Net forward household income expectations (percentage points)

Down 0.5 percentage points from June but still positive — the lone bright spot in the forward-looking components. This suggests that while consumers are pessimistic about the macro environment, personal income expectations have not yet collapsed, which supports continued spending at the lower end of the discretionary range even as big-ticket and durable-goods intentions soften.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) — June 2026 (2016=100)

Down 0.2% in June following a 0.1% increase in May, the LEI sits below its 2016 base level, reinforcing the picture of a deteriorating leading-indicator composite. The CCI is one of the LEI's ten components, so the July CCI weakness will feed into the July LEI reading expected next month.

WTI crude oil — front-month price

Elevated relative to the sub-$80 range prevailing before the current Iran-conflict escalation cycle. The Conference Board's own open-text analysis flagged that consumers specifically cited oil and gas prices during the survey period; at $83.90/bbl WTI, retail gasoline prices remain a visible household cost that reinforces the grocery-and-fuel inflation narrative depressing the Present Situation Index.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve — crude oil inventory

Roughly 98.9 million barrels have been released in the current 2026 Iran-conflict drawdown out of 172 million authorized. At 311.4 million barrels remaining, the SPR is not yet at operationally critical levels, but the authorized drawdown is 57% complete — the remaining buffer constrains how aggressively pump-price relief can be deployed if the Iran conflict reignites, directly affecting the trajectory of the cost-of-living pressure embedded in the CCI.

U.S. unemployment rate (BLS, official)

The official 4.2% unemployment rate (down from 4.3% in May) diverges sharply from the consumer-perceived labor market, where the differential fell to a five-year low of +3.1 percentage points. This official-vs-perceived gap is a key analytical tension: the labor market looks stable in headline statistics but consumers are increasingly skeptical about job availability — a pattern that can foreshadow actual labor softening by one to two quarters.

10-year U.S. Treasury yield

Down 4 basis points from the prior session's 4.69%, and paired with a 10-year/2-year spread of 35 basis points — a mildly positive curve that does not yet price recession. The sub-80 Expectations Index and five-year-low labor differential, if sustained, would typically support flatter or inverted curve dynamics as the market reprices Fed easing expectations, but the 10Y has not moved decisively in that direction as of the data date.

High-yield credit spread

Up 2 basis points from 279 bps on the prior session, but still in a range typically associated with a reasonably benign credit environment rather than stress. The modest widening is consistent with marginal risk-off sentiment but does not signal that credit markets have priced the deteriorating consumer confidence data into corporate default expectations — creating potential for a larger repricing if consumer data continues weakening.

CCI headline vs. Bloomberg consensus forecast — July 2026 miss

Gap: Miss of 1.6 points; negative surprises on consumer confidence prints in an environment where the Expectations Index is already sub-80 carry amplified sentiment weight relative to an in-line miss

Present Situation Index vs. Expectations Index — current divergence

Gap: Gap of 40.2 points; a wide Present/Expectations spread signals consumers feel current conditions are tolerable but fear meaningful deterioration ahead — a pattern historically associated with front-loaded spending followed by sharp deceleration

Labor market differential — July 2026 vs. February 2021 (five-year low reference)

Gap: At parity with the 2021 low; at that prior low, the economy was still recovering from pandemic labor market disruption — reaching the same differential now, against a 4.2% unemployment rate, implies a perception-driven deterioration that could translate into actual hiring softness with a one-to-two-quarter lag

Net current business conditions vs. net forward business conditions expectations

Gap: 4.4-percentage-point spread between a barely-positive present and a negative-expected future; this is the specific mechanism through which consumer confidence data leads to deferred capital and discretionary expenditures

Projection, not measured

Analytically projected: at the current trend — three consecutive Present Situation declines, Expectations anchored below 80 for over 17 months, and oil prices elevated by the Iran conflict — the August CCI print faces downside risk if U.S.-Iran hostilities resume after the post-July-22 pause, since the survey did not capture any post-pause relief. A sustained WTI price at or above $83/bbl heading into August, combined with grocery inflation remaining a named consumer stress point, would likely push the Present Situation Index toward 111–112 and could take the headline CCI below 89 — a level not seen since the confidence trough of 2022–2023. Conversely, a durable ceasefire driving gasoline prices back toward the early-July lows, combined with a strong July payroll print, represents the primary upside scenario for an August recovery to the 92–94 range. This is an analytical projection based on the trajectory of the underlying components and Iran-conflict energy dynamics, not a forecast.

The July 2026 CCI composite decline of 1.4 points understates the structural deterioration: the Present Situation Index is at a five-year low, the labor differential is at its weakest since February 2021, net current business conditions are barely positive at +1.1%, and the Expectations Index has been in recession-signal territory for over 17 months — all against an Iran-conflict oil-price backdrop that the August revision has not yet had a chance to reflect.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — headline composite (1985=100): 90.8

The 90.8 reading is 1.6 points below the upwardly revised June figure of 92.2 and 1.6 points below the Bloomberg consensus of 92.4. The index is indexed to 1985=100; pre-pandemic (2019) readings averaged roughly 128, making 90.8 a level that implies consumer sentiment is materially below the expansion baseline and consistent with the Conference Board's characterization of a downward trend since late 2021.

Present Situation Index — current business and labor conditions sub-index (1985=100): 114.9

A 3.6-point month-over-month decline to 114.9 marks the third consecutive monthly drop and the lowest reading for this sub-index since 2021, per multiple corroborating sources. The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes typically diverge when consumers feel conditions are acceptable today but fear deterioration ahead — a pattern associated with spending caution on durable goods and discretionary categories rather than outright contraction.

Expectations Index — six-month forward outlook for income, business, and labor (1985=100): 74.7

Unchanged from June, but the flatness is not reassuring: the Expectations Index has remained below the Conference Board's historical recession-signal threshold of 80 since February 2025, a span of over 17 months. Two of three sub-components declined: net business-conditions expectations fell 1.5 percentage points to -3.3%, and net income expectations fell 0.5 percentage points to +7.3%. Only labor market expectations improved, by +1.3 percentage points, though still in negative territory.

Labor market differential — share saying jobs 'plentiful' minus share saying 'hard to get' (percentage points): +3.1 ppts

Down 0.7 percentage points from June and the narrowest reading since February 2021. The jobs-plentiful share fell to 24.6% (from 25.5%), while the jobs-hard-to-get share declined marginally to 21.5% (from 21.7%), meaning the compression was driven by falling optimism rather than rising distress. Against a 4.2% official unemployment rate, a labor differential at a five-year low signals that household-level labor perceptions are weakening faster than headline jobless statistics.

Net current business conditions — share 'good' minus share 'bad' (percentage points): +1.1 ppts

A 2.6-percentage-point fall from June to barely positive territory, with 'good' readings down to 18.9% and 'bad' readings up to 17.8%. At this width of spread, a single additional adverse data point or geopolitical shock would flip net business conditions negative — a threshold that historically coincides with more significant pullbacks in consumer discretionary spending.

Net forward business conditions expectations (percentage points): –3.3 ppts

Declined 1.5 percentage points from June; negative territory means more consumers expect business conditions to worsen than improve over the next six months. Combined with a +1.1% net current reading, the data shows consumers believe conditions are barely positive today and expect deterioration ahead — a leading indicator of deferred discretionary purchases.

Net forward household income expectations (percentage points): +7.3 ppts

Down 0.5 percentage points from June but still positive — the lone bright spot in the forward-looking components. This suggests that while consumers are pessimistic about the macro environment, personal income expectations have not yet collapsed, which supports continued spending at the lower end of the discretionary range even as big-ticket and durable-goods intentions soften.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) — June 2026 (2016=100): 99.1

Down 0.2% in June following a 0.1% increase in May, the LEI sits below its 2016 base level, reinforcing the picture of a deteriorating leading-indicator composite. The CCI is one of the LEI's ten components, so the July CCI weakness will feed into the July LEI reading expected next month.

WTI crude oil — front-month price: $83.90/bbl

Elevated relative to the sub-$80 range prevailing before the current Iran-conflict escalation cycle. The Conference Board's own open-text analysis flagged that consumers specifically cited oil and gas prices during the survey period; at $83.90/bbl WTI, retail gasoline prices remain a visible household cost that reinforces the grocery-and-fuel inflation narrative depressing the Present Situation Index.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve — crude oil inventory: 311.4 million barrels

Roughly 98.9 million barrels have been released in the current 2026 Iran-conflict drawdown out of 172 million authorized. At 311.4 million barrels remaining, the SPR is not yet at operationally critical levels, but the authorized drawdown is 57% complete — the remaining buffer constrains how aggressively pump-price relief can be deployed if the Iran conflict reignites, directly affecting the trajectory of the cost-of-living pressure embedded in the CCI.

U.S. unemployment rate (BLS, official): 4.2%

The official 4.2% unemployment rate (down from 4.3% in May) diverges sharply from the consumer-perceived labor market, where the differential fell to a five-year low of +3.1 percentage points. This official-vs-perceived gap is a key analytical tension: the labor market looks stable in headline statistics but consumers are increasingly skeptical about job availability — a pattern that can foreshadow actual labor softening by one to two quarters.

10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.65%

Down 4 basis points from the prior session's 4.69%, and paired with a 10-year/2-year spread of 35 basis points — a mildly positive curve that does not yet price recession. The sub-80 Expectations Index and five-year-low labor differential, if sustained, would typically support flatter or inverted curve dynamics as the market reprices Fed easing expectations, but the 10Y has not moved decisively in that direction as of the data date.

High-yield credit spread: 281 basis points

Up 2 basis points from 279 bps on the prior session, but still in a range typically associated with a reasonably benign credit environment rather than stress. The modest widening is consistent with marginal risk-off sentiment but does not signal that credit markets have priced the deteriorating consumer confidence data into corporate default expectations — creating potential for a larger repricing if consumer data continues weakening.