Brief
The 2026 Iran war began on 28 February 2026 when the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes under the U.S. codename Operation Epic Fury, opening with a mixed offensive package that included ship-launched Tomahawk missiles, U.S. Army HIMARS-launched fires, and — confirmed by CENTCOM within days — the first-ever combat use of the Army's Precision Strike Missile. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM, said the operation struck nearly 2,000 Iranian targets within just over four days, while Iranian forces launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones in the same window, with roughly 60 percent of those launches directed at U.S. regional targets rather than Israel. This set the defensive architecture — Gulf-based THAAD and Patriot batteries, plus Aegis-equipped ships — on a consumption trajectory that CSIS and other trackers would spend the rest of the year documenting.
The war's defensive math cannot be read without its immediate predecessor. CSIS's Mark Cancian and Chris Park had already estimated that the June 2025 Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran consumed more than 150 THAAD interceptors — roughly a quarter of every THAAD interceptor the Pentagon had ever purchased — and about 80 SM-3 missiles, with no new THAAD deliveries scheduled until April 2027. That baseline meant the U.S. entered the 2026 war with a partially depleted magazine before the first PrSM left its HIMARS pod. Within the first days of the February strikes, one widely cited estimate — attributed to The Economist and repeated across multiple outlets — put allied Gulf expenditure at roughly 800 PAC-3 MSE or THAAD rounds, a figure that should be treated as an early, single-sourced estimate rather than a confirmed inventory count.
The first phase of the war ran 39 days, ending in a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on 8 April 2026. Over that span CSIS estimated the U.S. hit more than 13,000 targets using seven primary strike and defense systems — Tomahawk, JASSM, PrSM, SM-3, SM-6, THAAD, and Patriot — and estimated Patriot expenditure at between 1,060 and 1,430 missiles against a roughly 2,330-interceptor prewar stockpile, alongside 190 to 290 THAAD interceptors fired from a roughly 360-interceptor base. Gulf partner interceptions accumulated in parallel: the UAE reported intercepting 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks, and 26 cruise missiles by 9 April using U.S.-supplied THAAD and Patriot systems, and Bahrain's Defence Force reported intercepting 125 missiles and 211 drones since the war began — figures that, because they are self-reported by the defending state rather than independently audited, should be read as assessed rather than confirmed totals.
The ceasefire proved fragile twice over. Iran struck three commercial vessels that bypassed its preapproved Strait of Hormuz route in early July, collapsing a June 14 memorandum of understanding and reigniting roughly two weeks of fighting that pushed CSIS's THAAD estimate down to between 232 and 262 interceptors — nearly half the prewar 452 — before a partial resupply brought the figure to an estimated 234–278 by late July. Patriot inventories fell from roughly 2,330 before the war to about 1,030 at the April ceasefire, then to an estimated 759–827 following the July fighting, a decline CSIS characterized as at least 65 percent since before the conflict began. The Defense Secretary publicly disputed a CNN report citing sources who said nearly 80 percent of THAAD stocks had been depleted, calling that figure "not true," while the Pentagon simultaneously announced multiyear production agreements with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin intended to triple and quadruple Patriot and THAAD output respectively. The most recent verified escalation came on 30 August 2026, when U.S. forces struck two IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island after reportedly detecting preparations to launch sea-mine-carrying rockets into the Strait of Hormuz — the first U.S. strike on Iranian territory in weeks — prompting an IRGC missile-and-drone response against the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan, where Jordanian forces reported intercepting eight missiles.
Timeline (12)
2026-02-28(exact)★ Turning PointHigh conf.
US-Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials; U.S. warships launched Tomahawk missiles while the Army employed HIMARS launchers and undisclosed long-range standoff weapons, with B-2, B-1, and B-52 bombers striking fortified ballistic missile facilities.
United StatesIsraelIranCENTCOM
Why It Mattered: This established the war's opening offensive tempo and set the demand curve for Tomahawk, PrSM, and follow-on strike assets that would define the first six weeks of the conflict.
↳ Establishes the baseline.
2026-03-01(exact)★ Turning PointMedium conf.
PrSM makes combat debut in Iran strikes
CENTCOM confirmed via a March 1 social media post that Precision Strike Missiles had been used in combat for the first time, with screen captures purporting to show a PrSM launch alongside an ATACMS launch.
CENTCOMUS Army
Why It Mattered: This marked the first operational use of a weapon designed for Indo-Pacific A2/AD scenarios, diverting a scarce, newly-fielded munition into a Middle East campaign rather than its intended Pacific stockpile role.
↳ Shifted the strike mix from legacy ATACMS toward the longer-range PrSM, though independent visual confirmation of the debut remained contested among observers.
2026-03-04(exact)High conf.
CENTCOM confirms 20+ weapons systems employed in first 48 hours
CENTCOM stated that more than 20 different weapons systems across air, sea, land, and missile-defense domains had been employed during the first 48 hours of Operation Epic Fury, with Admiral Brad Cooper stating nearly 2,000 Iranian targets struck within just over four days.
CENTCOMAdmiral Brad Cooper
Why It Mattered: This established the scale and diversity of the offensive strike package, indicating munitions expenditure was occurring across nearly every major U.S. precision strike system simultaneously rather than concentrated in one platform.
↳ Confirmed the offensive tempo was sustained rather than a single opening salvo.
2026-03-13(exact)Medium conf.
General Caine details ATACMS and PrSM strikes on Iranian naval/missile targets
U.S. Army General Dan Caine provided a video update stating the Army and Marines had destroyed deposits, sunk ships and a submarine using ATACMS, and struck deep into Iran with PrSMs, identifying the 3rd Battalion, 27th Field Artillery Regiment as the unit employing PrSM in combat.
US ArmyUS Marines3rd Battalion 27th Field Artillery Regiment
Why It Mattered: This provided the first named-unit attribution for PrSM employment, though independent imagery analysis could not visually confirm the specific strikes described.
↳ Added naval strike targets (ships and a submarine) to the confirmed target set beyond the land-attack missions reported in early March.
2026-04-08(exact)★ Turning PointHigh conf.
First Iran war ceasefire brokered by Pakistan
The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan after Iran rejected a 45-day two-phased framework and proposed its own 10-point peace plan; the ceasefire was extended indefinitely on 21 April.
United StatesIranPakistan
Why It Mattered: This closed the first 39-day phase of the war, during which CSIS estimated the U.S. had struck more than 13,000 targets and expended the bulk of the war's first-phase interceptor and strike-missile inventory.
↳ Halted the sustained offensive-defensive exchange that had driven Patriot expenditure to an estimated 1,060-1,430 missiles and THAAD to 190-290 interceptors fired since February.
2026-04-09(exact)High conf.
UAE reports cumulative intercept totals since war start
The UAE reported having intercepted and destroyed 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks, and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran since the war began, using THAAD and Patriot systems acquired from the United States.
United Arab EmiratesUAE Armed Forces
Why It Mattered: This is the most granular publicly disclosed partner-nation intercept tally of the war, illustrating that Gulf allied THAAD/Patriot consumption occurred at a scale comparable to core U.S. force expenditure.
↳ Quantified for the first time the defensive burden borne by a single Gulf ally's THAAD/Patriot batteries rather than only U.S.-operated systems.
2026-07-07(exact)★ Turning PointHigh conf.
Iran strikes commercial vessels, collapsing June MOU
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in Oman's territorial waters near the Strait of Hormuz after bypassing Iran's preapproved shipping route, collapsing the June 14 memorandum of understanding intended to end the conflict within 60 days.
IranUnited States
Why It Mattered: This reopened active hostilities after roughly three months of brinkmanship, forcing renewed interceptor expenditure against a starting inventory already reduced by the February-April phase.
↳ Ended the negotiated pause and restarted the drawdown of Patriot and THAAD stocks that had only partially recovered since April.
2026-07-27(exact)High conf.
US pauses strikes after roughly two weeks of renewed fighting
The U.S. and Iran appeared to pause strikes following nearly two weeks of fighting that brought the 60-day ceasefire to an effective collapse; Trump said the U.S. halted strikes at Iran's request and warned of resumed attacks absent a new deal.
United StatesIranDonald Trump
Why It Mattered: This closed the second major combat phase, setting up the CSIS interceptor accounting that would reveal the deepest stockpile depletion of the war to date.
↳ Ended roughly two weeks of intensified strikes that had driven THAAD stocks down to an estimated 232-262 interceptors from the post-April baseline.
2026-07-27(exact)★ Turning PointMedium conf.
CSIS reports THAAD fallen to 232-262 interceptors at ceasefire
A CSIS analysis reported that THAAD interceptors fell from 452 before the war to between 232 and 262 at the start of the ceasefire, later partially replenished to between 234 and 278.
CSIS
Why It Mattered: This is the clearest single-source quantification of cumulative THAAD depletion across both combat phases, showing the stockpile roughly halved from its prewar level.
↳ Converted anecdotal shortage reporting into a specific inventory estimate that subsequently framed Pentagon and congressional debate over production ramp-ups.
2026-08-04(exact)Low conf.
CNN reports near-80% THAAD depletion; Defense Secretary disputes figure
CNN reported, citing two sources familiar with an inventory report, that the U.S. military had depleted nearly 80 percent of its THAAD stockpile and roughly half its Patriot interceptors since the war began; the Defense Secretary publicly disputed the 80 percent THAAD figure that week, calling it not true.
CNNDefense Secretary
Why It Mattered: This single-source claim, explicitly disputed by Pentagon leadership, illustrates the contested and politically sensitive nature of interceptor accounting, and should be flagged as unconfirmed against the CSIS range of 234-278.
↳ Introduced a materially higher depletion estimate than CSIS's public figures, creating an unresolved discrepancy between leaked-source reporting and think-tank modeling.
2026-08-04(exact)★ Turning PointHigh conf.
Pentagon announces production surge agreements with Lockheed and Northrop
The Defense Department announced agreements with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin aimed at tripling and quadrupling production of Patriot and THAAD missiles respectively, alongside seven-year procurement contracts for critical subcomponents.
US Department of DefenseNorthrop GrummanLockheed Martin
Why It Mattered: This is the clearest institutional acknowledgment that stockpile depletion had reached a level requiring an industrial-base response rather than existing production schedules.
↳ Shifted the U.S. response from absorbing depletion within existing procurement lines to actively re-engineering production capacity.
2026-08-30(exact)★ Turning PointHigh conf.
US strikes Larak Island; Iran retaliates against Jordan bases
U.S. forces struck two IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island after reportedly detecting preparations to launch sea-mine-carrying rockets toward the Strait of Hormuz; hours later the IRGC launched a combined missile and drone operation, hitting the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan, with Jordan reporting eight missiles intercepted.
United StatesIRGCJordanJordanian Armed Forces
Why It Mattered: This marked the first US-Iran strike exchange in over a month, occurring against the backdrop of Washington's public shift toward economic pressure and confirming that Gulf/Jordan air-defense batteries remain in active, if intermittent, combat status even amid negotiations.
↳ Broke roughly a month of relative military calm, testing whether the reduced Patriot/THAAD inventory reported in early August could still cover an active multi-site Iranian retaliation.
The claims behind this analysis, each with its verification status — including what is contested, unverified, or could not be established.
What each grade meansUS-Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran — This is the war's origin point, setting every subsequent munitions-expenditure question in motion.
✓ DOCUMENTED
PrSM makes combat debut in Iran strikes — First operational use of a weapon system designed for a different theater signaled how the conflict was drawing down assets earmarked for other contingencies.
✓ DOCUMENTED
First Iran war ceasefire brokered by Pakistan — Closed the highest-intensity expenditure phase of the war and created the baseline against which all subsequent depletion figures are measured.
✓ DOCUMENTED
Iran strikes commercial vessels, collapsing June MOU — Reopened hostilities against an already-thinned stockpile, compounding depletion rather than allowing recovery.
✓ DOCUMENTED
CSIS reports THAAD fallen to 232-262 interceptors at ceasefire — Converted qualitative shortage concerns into the quantified figures that subsequently drove Pentagon production-surge decisions and congressional debate.
✓ DOCUMENTED
Pentagon announces production surge agreements with Lockheed and Northrop — Marked the institutional pivot from absorbing losses to restructuring the industrial base, the clearest sign depletion had become a structural rather than transient problem.
✓ DOCUMENTED
Operation Epic Fury began 28 February 2026 with CENTCOM confirming nearly 2,000 Iranian targets struck within just over four days, while Iran launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones in that period.
This establishes the offensive tempo and reciprocal missile-defense burden that drove the war's earliest interceptor and strike-missile consumption.
US warships launched Tomahawk missiles and the Army employed HIMARS launchers, alongside B-2, B-1, and B-52 bombers, in the opening 28 February strikes.
Confirms Tomahawk employment was part of the war's opening strike package rather than a later addition, anchoring the Tomahawk strand of the munitions timeline.
CENTCOM confirmed the Precision Strike Missile's first-ever combat use during Operation Epic Fury, with General Dan Caine naming the 3rd Battalion, 27th Field Artillery Regiment as the employing unit; independent imagery analysis could not fully confirm the specific strikes.
Establishes PrSM's combat debut date and unit attribution while flagging that visual corroboration remains contested, which bounds how confidently PrSM strike claims can be treated.
The first Iran war ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan on 8 April 2026 after 39 days of fighting; it was violated repeatedly, extended indefinitely on 21 April, and effectively collapsed in July 2026 after Iran struck three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
Defines the phase boundaries of the war, which is essential for correctly attributing which interceptor-depletion figures belong to which combat phase.
CSIS estimated Patriot interceptors fell from roughly 2,330 prewar to about 1,030 at the April ceasefire and to an estimated 759-827 following July fighting, while THAAD fell from 452 prewar to between 232-262 at the ceasefire and recovered only to 234-278 by late July.
Provides the two-source-corroborated (CSIS, Al Jazeera reporting on CSIS) quantitative backbone for assessing how depleted U.S. missile-defense stocks became across the war's two combat phases.
The UAE reported intercepting 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks, and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran by 9 April 2026 using US-supplied THAAD and Patriot systems.
Shows Gulf partner-nation intercept volume was comparable in scale to core U.S. expenditure, meaning any assessment of interceptor sustainment must account for allied consumption, not only U.S. forces.
US-Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials; U.S. warships launched Tomahawk missiles while the Army employed HIMARS launchers and undisclosed long-range standoff weapons, with B-2, B-1, and B-52 bombers striking fortified ballistic missile facilities.
— DATED RECORD2026-02-28 · High confidence
PrSM makes combat debut in Iran strikes
CENTCOM confirmed via a March 1 social media post that Precision Strike Missiles had been used in combat for the first time, with screen captures purporting to show a PrSM launch alongside an ATACMS launch.
— DATED RECORD2026-03-01 · Medium confidence
CENTCOM confirms 20+ weapons systems employed in first 48 hours
CENTCOM stated that more than 20 different weapons systems across air, sea, land, and missile-defense domains had been employed during the first 48 hours of Operation Epic Fury, with Admiral Brad Cooper stating nearly 2,000 Iranian targets struck within just over four days.
— DATED RECORD2026-03-04 · High confidence
General Caine details ATACMS and PrSM strikes on Iranian naval/missile targets
U.S. Army General Dan Caine provided a video update stating the Army and Marines had destroyed deposits, sunk ships and a submarine using ATACMS, and struck deep into Iran with PrSMs, identifying the 3rd Battalion, 27th Field Artillery Regiment as the unit employing PrSM in combat.
— DATED RECORD2026-03-13 · Medium confidence
First Iran war ceasefire brokered by Pakistan
The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan after Iran rejected a 45-day two-phased framework and proposed its own 10-point peace plan; the ceasefire was extended indefinitely on 21 April.
— DATED RECORD2026-04-08 · High confidence
UAE reports cumulative intercept totals since war start
The UAE reported having intercepted and destroyed 537 ballistic missiles, 2,256 drone attacks, and 26 cruise missiles fired from Iran since the war began, using THAAD and Patriot systems acquired from the United States.
— DATED RECORD2026-04-09 · High confidence
Iran strikes commercial vessels, collapsing June MOU
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in Oman's territorial waters near the Strait of Hormuz after bypassing Iran's preapproved shipping route, collapsing the June 14 memorandum of understanding intended to end the conflict within 60 days.
— DATED RECORD2026-07-07 · High confidence
US pauses strikes after roughly two weeks of renewed fighting
The U.S. and Iran appeared to pause strikes following nearly two weeks of fighting that brought the 60-day ceasefire to an effective collapse; Trump said the U.S. halted strikes at Iran's request and warned of resumed attacks absent a new deal.
— DATED RECORD2026-07-27 · High confidence
CSIS reports THAAD fallen to 232-262 interceptors at ceasefire
A CSIS analysis reported that THAAD interceptors fell from 452 before the war to between 232 and 262 at the start of the ceasefire, later partially replenished to between 234 and 278.
— DATED RECORD2026-07-27 · Medium confidence
CNN reports near-80% THAAD depletion; Defense Secretary disputes figure
CNN reported, citing two sources familiar with an inventory report, that the U.S. military had depleted nearly 80 percent of its THAAD stockpile and roughly half its Patriot interceptors since the war began; the Defense Secretary publicly disputed the 80 percent THAAD figure that week, calling it not true.
— DATED RECORD2026-08-04 · Low confidence
Pentagon announces production surge agreements with Lockheed and Northrop
The Defense Department announced agreements with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin aimed at tripling and quadrupling production of Patriot and THAAD missiles respectively, alongside seven-year procurement contracts for critical subcomponents.
— DATED RECORD2026-08-04 · High confidence
US strikes Larak Island; Iran retaliates against Jordan bases
U.S. forces struck two IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island after reportedly detecting preparations to launch sea-mine-carrying rockets toward the Strait of Hormuz; hours later the IRGC launched a combined missile and drone operation, hitting the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan, with Jordan reporting eight missiles intercepted.
— DATED RECORD2026-08-30 · High confidence