Brief
The teacher pay penalty is the most rigorously tracked number in this landscape. The Economic Policy Institute's regression-adjusted series, using Current Population Survey data, put the penalty at a record 26.9% in 2024 before an easing to 25.2% in 2025 — meaning teachers earned 74.8 cents on the dollar compared with similar college graduates that year, versus 93.9 cents in 1996. EPI's own authors caution that the 2025 improvement is unlikely to hold, since prior easings in this three-decade series have proven temporary. The gap is not uniform: the male teacher penalty (34.5%) is nearly double the female penalty (20.0%) in 2025, and state variation is extreme — Colorado's 40.7% penalty is the first time in the series any state has crossed 40%, while Rhode Island's 10.4% is the narrowest.
On the supply side, the production numbers tell a parallel story of decline. NCTQ's analysis of federal Title II data shows total teacher-preparation completers fell from nearly 214,000 in academic year 2010-11 to about 160,000 in 2020-21 — a drop of more than 25% in a decade, with the recovery since then driven almost entirely by alternative-route programs rather than traditional four-year education degrees. Meanwhile, the demand side is dominated by attrition rather than growth: Learning Policy Institute researchers have established that attrition — teachers leaving the profession — comprises about 90% of annual teacher demand, not enrollment growth or newly created positions. The often-cited ~270,000 annual exits figure traces to a 2018 BLS Career Outlook projection of average annual occupational separations for K-12 teachers over 2016-2026, not a single-year headcount, and it should be read as that kind of decade-average projection rather than a current annual tally.
A genuine methodological tension has opened in the newest data. NCES's 2021-22 Teacher Follow-Up Survey found an 8% national attrition rate (teachers leaving the profession entirely) with another 8% moving schools, consistent with the ~8% figure LPI and others have used for years. But RAND's American School District Panel, tracking district-reported turnover through the 2024-2025 school year, found turnover had fallen from a pandemic peak of about 10% to just under 7% — still above the roughly 6% pre-pandemic baseline. A separate Education Next analysis (Aldman and Yi, December 2025) pooling 2015-2024 data put annual profession-exit at 7.6%, arguing turnover has remained "consistently low" and comparable to nursing. These are not contradictory so much as measuring different things (district-reported turnover vs. federal survey-based attrition vs. pooled multi-year averages), but the headline framing of a runaway exodus is more contested in 2025-2026 sourcing than it was in earlier crisis-era reporting.
The vacancy and shortage numbers translate the supply-demand mismatch into classroom-level stakes. Learning Policy Institute's most recent national scan (July 2026) found more than 425,400 teaching positions were either unfilled or filled by teachers not fully certified for their assignments — roughly 1 in 8 of all U.S. teaching positions — marking the third consecutive year of increase in this combined metric. State-level detail shows sharply uneven severity: Arizona's share of not-fully-certified teachers rose more than 60% from 5,072 in 2020-21 to 8,229 in 2023-24, while North Carolina's attrition rate held at 10.11% for 2024-25, up slightly from 9.88% the prior year, with attrition concentrated among both the newest teachers (14-18% for those with 0-5 years) and the most veteran (15.5-25% for 30-plus years).
The Numbers (13)
Teacher pay penalty, 2025 (regression-adjusted, vs. comparable college graduates)
25.2% penalty (74.8 cents on the dollar)▼ Down
This is the headline penalty figure and represents a slight easing from the record 26.9% penalty in 2024, though EPI's own authors expect the improvement to be temporary based on the historical pattern of the series.
As of 2025Economic Policy Institute / CEPR, published August 2026High confidence
Teacher pay penalty, 2024 (record high, prior year)
26.9% penalty (73.1 cents on the dollar)▼ Down
This was the highest penalty recorded in the three-decade EPI series, up slightly from 26.6% in 2023, underscoring that 2025's improvement interrupted rather than reversed a multi-decade trend.
As of 2024Economic Policy InstituteHigh confidence
Teacher pay penalty, 1996 baseline
6.1% penalty (93.9 cents on the dollar)▼ Down
The nearly fourfold widening of the penalty since 1996 (6.1% to 25.2%) is the core empirical basis for arguing teacher pay has structurally diverged from other college-educated professions.
As of 1996Economic Policy InstituteHigh confidence
Teacher pay penalty by gender, 2025
Men: 34.5% penalty; Women: 20.0% penalty▬ Flat
The male penalty is nearly double the female penalty, which EPI and others have used to help explain why men are increasingly underrepresented in the teaching profession.
As of 2025Economic Policy Institute / CEPRHigh confidence
State pay-penalty range, 2025
10.4% (Rhode Island) to 40.7% (Colorado)
Colorado's 40.7% is the first time any state has crossed the 40% threshold in this research series; the penalty was at least 25% in 25 states in 2025.
As of 2025Economic Policy Institute / CEPRHigh confidence
Annual teacher occupational separations (BLS projection basis)
~270,000 per year (2016-2026 average projection)
This is a decade-average occupational-separation projection, not a single-year headcount; it combines transfers to other occupations and permanent labor-force exits (e.g., roughly 48,300 elementary-teacher exits vs. 54,200 occupational transfers annually in the underlying breakdown).
As of Published 2018, covering 2016-2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Career OutlookMedium confidence
Share of annual teacher demand driven by attrition
~90%▬ Flat
This fact reframes the shortage problem: it is overwhelmingly a retention problem rather than a growth-in-demand problem, since enrollment-driven new positions are a small share of annual openings.
As of Established via Sutcher, Darling-Hammond & Carver-Thomas; reaffirmed in LPI's 2025 factsheetLearning Policy InstituteHigh confidence
National teacher attrition rate (NCES federal survey basis)
8% leave the profession annually (public school teachers)▬ Flat
This federal-survey figure is the most commonly cited attrition rate in policy literature, though it runs higher than the most recent district-reported turnover figures from RAND.
As of 2021-22 school year (NCES Teacher Follow-Up Survey, released 2023-2024)National Center for Education Statistics (NCES 2024-039)High confidence
National teacher turnover rate (district-reported basis)
Just under 7%▼ Down
This district-reported figure shows a continued decline from a pandemic peak of about 10% turnover, though it remains above the roughly 6% pre-pandemic baseline — a materially different read from the NCES survey-based 8% figure.
As of 2024-2025 school yearRAND American School District PanelMedium confidence
Annual teacher prep program completers
~160,000▼ Down
This marks a decline of more than 25% from nearly 214,000 completers in 2010-11, with most of the recent partial recovery attributable to alternative-route rather than traditional four-year programs.
As of 2020-21 academic year (most recent Title II data)NCTQ analysis of U.S. Department of Education Title II dataHigh confidence
Teaching positions unfilled or filled by non-fully-certified teachers, nationally
425,400+ positions (~1 in 8 of all U.S. teaching positions)▲ Up
This marks the third consecutive year of increase in this combined shortage metric, and is an update from 411,549 positions reported in LPI's 2025 scan.
As of 2026 scan (most recent state-reported data)Learning Policy InstituteHigh confidence
Arizona teachers not fully certified for assignment
8,229 teachers (up from 5,072)▲ Up
A more than 60% increase in four years illustrates how shortage severity is highly state-specific rather than uniform nationally, with Title I schools disproportionately affected.
As of 2023-24 school year, vs. 2020-21 baselineLearning Policy Institute analysis of Arizona state dataHigh confidence
North Carolina teacher attrition rate
10.11%▲ Up
Slightly up from 9.88% in 2023-24, with attrition concentrated among teachers with 0-5 years of experience (14-18%) and veterans with 30-plus years (15.5-25%), showing the U-shaped attrition curve by career stage.
As of 2024-25 school yearNorth Carolina Department of Public InstructionHigh confidence
Comparisons (3)
Teacher pay penalty: worst state vs. best state, 2025
Colorado: 40.7% penalty (59.3 cents on the dollar)vsRhode Island: 10.4% penalty
Gap: A 30-point spread between the two states shows the pay penalty is not a uniform national phenomenon but concentrated in specific state compensation structures, with Colorado now the first state ever recorded above 40%.
Prep-program completions: 2010-11 vs. 2020-21
~214,000 completers (2010-11)vs~160,000 completers (2020-21)
Gap: A decline of more than 25% in a decade, with the shortfall concentrated in traditional (not alternative-route) programs.
Attrition rate: NCES federal survey vs. RAND district-reported
8% (NCES, 2021-22)vs~7% (RAND ASD Panel, 2024-25)
Gap: The roughly 1-point gap reflects different data sources and time periods rather than a contradiction, but underscores that 'the' national attrition rate depends heavily on which survey and year is cited.
The claims behind this analysis, each with its verification status — including what is contested, unverified, or could not be established.
What each grade meansTeacher pay penalty, 2025 (regression-adjusted, vs. comparable college graduates): 25.2% penalty (74.8 cents on the dollar)
This is the headline penalty figure and represents a slight easing from the record 26.9% penalty in 2024, though EPI's own authors expect the improvement to be temporary based on the historical pattern of the series.
— FROM THE RECORDper Economic Policy Institute / CEPR, published August 2026 · as of 2025 · High confidence Teacher pay penalty, 2024 (record high, prior year): 26.9% penalty (73.1 cents on the dollar)
This was the highest penalty recorded in the three-decade EPI series, up slightly from 26.6% in 2023, underscoring that 2025's improvement interrupted rather than reversed a multi-decade trend.
Teacher pay penalty, 1996 baseline: 6.1% penalty (93.9 cents on the dollar)
The nearly fourfold widening of the penalty since 1996 (6.1% to 25.2%) is the core empirical basis for arguing teacher pay has structurally diverged from other college-educated professions.
Teacher pay penalty by gender, 2025: Men: 34.5% penalty; Women: 20.0% penalty
The male penalty is nearly double the female penalty, which EPI and others have used to help explain why men are increasingly underrepresented in the teaching profession.
State pay-penalty range, 2025: 10.4% (Rhode Island) to 40.7% (Colorado)
Colorado's 40.7% is the first time any state has crossed the 40% threshold in this research series; the penalty was at least 25% in 25 states in 2025.
Annual teacher occupational separations (BLS projection basis): ~270,000 per year (2016-2026 average projection)
This is a decade-average occupational-separation projection, not a single-year headcount; it combines transfers to other occupations and permanent labor-force exits (e.g., roughly 48,300 elementary-teacher exits vs. 54,200 occupational transfers annually in the underlying breakdown).
— FROM THE RECORDper U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Career Outlook · as of Published 2018, covering 2016-2026 · Medium confidence Share of annual teacher demand driven by attrition: ~90%
This fact reframes the shortage problem: it is overwhelmingly a retention problem rather than a growth-in-demand problem, since enrollment-driven new positions are a small share of annual openings.
— FROM THE RECORDper Learning Policy Institute · as of Established via Sutcher, Darling-Hammond & Carver-Thomas; reaffirmed in LPI's 2025 factsheet · High confidence National teacher attrition rate (NCES federal survey basis): 8% leave the profession annually (public school teachers)
This federal-survey figure is the most commonly cited attrition rate in policy literature, though it runs higher than the most recent district-reported turnover figures from RAND.
— FROM THE RECORDper National Center for Education Statistics (NCES 2024-039) · as of 2021-22 school year (NCES Teacher Follow-Up Survey, released 2023-2024) · High confidence National teacher turnover rate (district-reported basis): Just under 7%
This district-reported figure shows a continued decline from a pandemic peak of about 10% turnover, though it remains above the roughly 6% pre-pandemic baseline — a materially different read from the NCES survey-based 8% figure.
— FROM THE RECORDper RAND American School District Panel · as of 2024-2025 school year · Medium confidence Annual teacher prep program completers: ~160,000
This marks a decline of more than 25% from nearly 214,000 completers in 2010-11, with most of the recent partial recovery attributable to alternative-route rather than traditional four-year programs.
— FROM THE RECORDper NCTQ analysis of U.S. Department of Education Title II data · as of 2020-21 academic year (most recent Title II data) · High confidence Teaching positions unfilled or filled by non-fully-certified teachers, nationally: 425,400+ positions (~1 in 8 of all U.S. teaching positions)
This marks the third consecutive year of increase in this combined shortage metric, and is an update from 411,549 positions reported in LPI's 2025 scan.
— FROM THE RECORDper Learning Policy Institute · as of 2026 scan (most recent state-reported data) · High confidence Arizona teachers not fully certified for assignment: 8,229 teachers (up from 5,072)
A more than 60% increase in four years illustrates how shortage severity is highly state-specific rather than uniform nationally, with Title I schools disproportionately affected.
— FROM THE RECORDper Learning Policy Institute analysis of Arizona state data · as of 2023-24 school year, vs. 2020-21 baseline · High confidence North Carolina teacher attrition rate: 10.11%
Slightly up from 9.88% in 2023-24, with attrition concentrated among teachers with 0-5 years of experience (14-18%) and veterans with 30-plus years (15.5-25%), showing the U-shaped attrition curve by career stage.
— FROM THE RECORDper North Carolina Department of Public Instruction · as of 2024-25 school year · High confidence