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Precedents

The historical cases that rhyme with this one, and what they say about how it tends to go.

2 credits·in-depth·about 2–4 min·12 domains

What it answers

The question Precedents is built for

Describe the situation. It anchors it to a base rate, finds the precedents that genuinely resemble it, draws out the patterns across them, and names the signals that would show this case diverging from the pattern.

Who reaches for it

Anyone about to say "this has never happened before", and anyone who suspects it has.

What comes back

5 sections, on every run

These are the headings the result renders, read from the same promise the form makes before you spend a credit. A section that depends on what the record holds is rendered when it can be and never promised here.

01

Base Rate Anchor

Outcome Distribution
02

Precedents

03

Patterns Across Precedents

04

Divergence Watch Signals

05

Suggested Follow-ons

What you give it

2 boxes, 1 required

Situation to analyze
required · up to 1500 characters
Additional context
optional · up to 800 characters
Try it on: a subject you already hold an opinion about, so you can grade the result against what you know. Each one opens the form filled, in the General domain.
A peacetime naval blockade of Taiwan
What it will not do

The lines it holds

A precedent is offered for its resemblance, with the ways it differs stated. It does not claim history repeats, and a base rate is a starting anchor, not a probability for this case.

Every claim carries its grade

A claim the scan could not source is marked as such rather than dressed up. How the grades work →

Verified or grounded
Reported or attributed
Contested
Open question
Where it runs

Available in 12 domains

A domain may name it in its own words and price it on its own terms; each row is what that domain shows.

General2 creditsDefenseas Historical Ops2 creditsFinanceas Market Precedents2 creditsEnergyas Supply Analogues2 creditsHealthas Clinical Precedents2 creditsPolicyas Policy Precedents2 creditsTechnologyas Prior Art2 creditsClimateas Event Analogues2 creditsLearningas Case Studies2 creditsSportsas Comparable Games2 creditsTravel2 creditsLifestyle2 credits
See one

Research already published as Precedents

FIFA Minority Stake Sale in Commercial Subsidiary Controlling World Cup Rights

Read the research →

Formula One's calendar expanded from 16 to 22 races within 2–3 years of CVC Capital Partners acquiring majority control of commercial rights in 2006, establishing that investor ownership directly pressures for format expansion to maximize hosting fees and broadcast revenue.

Finance · July 29, 2026

Consumer Squeeze Driving Trade-Down From Ultra-Cheap Fast Fashion to Mid-Price Value Apparel

Read the research →

The 2008 Great Recession triggered a durable shift from full-price mid-tier apparel to off-price channels that persisted well into the 2010s, suggesting today's trade-down from ultra-cheap fast fashion to mid-price value tiers could be structural rather than cyclical.

Finance · July 28, 2026
Try it

Run Precedents on something you already know

The fastest way to judge the result is to pick a subject you know cold and read it against what you know. The scan names its credit cost before it runs.

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More in the catalog

Other research in explore

ScenarioWhat happens if this plays out: a premise projected onto the parties it would reach.OptionsThe moves actually open to one party in one situation, and what each would cost them.CompareTwo things set side by side on the dimensions that separate them, with a verdict that says why.LandscapeEvery named player in a space placed on one map, with position and leverage stated.Uncertainty MapWhat is genuinely unknown about a question, what is only assumed, and what would shrink each gap.The whole catalog →